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Mathematical
formula predicts clear favourite for the FIFA World Cup
A sophisticated
new analysis of team tactics predicts
a Spanish win in
Sunday's FIFA World Cup final and also shows why England were beaten by
Germany.
Mathematicians and football supporters Dr Javier López
Peña and Dr Hugo Touchette from Queen Mary, University of
London have collected ball passing data from all of the FIFA World Cup
games and analysed it to reveal the nations' different styles of play.
Using the mathematical technique called Graph Theory, they have
revealed the gaping holes in England's tactics against Germany game and
made predictions about the Netherlands-Spain final that could rival the
psychic octopus.
For each national side, Drs López Peña and
Touchette have drawn up a 'network' of passes between players
throughout the tournament and analysed how these networks compare
between teams. Dr Touchette explains: "Each player in the network is
given a score called centrality which measures how vital they are to
the network. The higher the centrality score, the bigger the impact if
that player wasn't there. This method is most commonly used to make
computer networks more robust, but it can also be used to plan football
strategy."
Graph Theory is used to analyse different types of networks,
most
commonly to investigate computer networks - such as the internet - and
to model what would happen if different parts of the networks were
suddenly removed. This type of research, which takes place in Queen
Mary's School of
Mathematical Sciences, can make computer networks more
robust and less
susceptible to disruption.
The
Netherlands-Spain
prediction
The networks reveal Spanish players have made a strikingly high number
of passes this tournament, almost 40 per cent more than Germany and
twice as many as the Dutch. "The team relies on swift passes that are
well distributed among all players, especially between those playing
mid-field," said Dr López Peña.
David Villa, the tournament's highest goal scorer, has received an
average of 37 passes per game, more than any other forward from all the
teams. Dr López Peña said: "Villa's performance
has been impressive compared with Fernando Torres, who has not scored
any goals this tournament. This was reflected in the successful Spanish
tactics, with Torres only receiving an average of 13 passes per match,
and 37 to Villa."
Conversely, the Dutch gameplay is clearly offensive, involving a very
low number of passes between players, most of which are aimed at the
strikers. Dr López Peña said: "The low number of
passes shows the Dutch prefer quick attacks and counterstrikes rather
than intricate playing. Their goals are often scored from set pieces
such as free kicks and they use their physical presence to beat their
opponents."
The
England-Germany match
The analysis shows the English squad to have a balanced line-up with no
single player more important than the team as a whole. Dr
López Peña said: "The good midfield work of Frank
Lampard, Steven Gerrard and Gareth Barry doesn't appear to transfer
very well to the forwards, with Wayne Rooney receiving on average three
times more passes than Jermain Defoe. This makes the English attack
very predictable and easily stoppable by blocking Rooney, who is
usually forced to give the ball back to Gerrard."
The German network appears even more balanced than the English one,
with a higher number of passes, suggesting more circulation of the
ball. "Particularly relevant are the passes between Philipp Lahm and
Bastian Schweinsteiger and most of the German attacks are built up from
the defenders. Mesut Oezil makes good work connecting both sides of the
field on the attack, making the German offensive game very effective
and hard to defend against. The key player in the German strategy
remains Schweinsteiger, who was effectively blocked by the Spanish
midfielders' characteristic fast circulation in their
semi-final defeat," said Dr López Peña.
(Written by Matt Parker and Simon Levey)
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