Quantitative, epidemiological prediction and the
original SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
S. J. Childs, Department of
Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Fort Hare
SAMS Subject Classification Number: 12
One of the foremost casualties of the first SARS-CoV-2 pandemic might
well have been the field of quantitative epidemiology itself. Yet this
presentation will demonstrate that the original pandemic in South Africa
conformed to the standard model of an infectious disease; to the extent
that an exact prediction of its epidemic threshold (around 3.5 million
reported cases) was made as early as the 2nd of July, 2020. To this end,
an exposition of a very simple formula for the basic reproduction
number,
In August of 2020, a purported, early threshold was touted and the
questions of undetected, T-cell-mediated immunity and whether SARS-CoV-2
was actually endemic to South Africa needed to be settled. Two data
defficiencies were formulated and experimented with. It was quickly
discovered that, if either did, indeed, play a role in an unforseen
threshold, then the more compelling of the two phenomena might be that
the true level of infection had been underestimated by a multiplicative
factor; something which was already a recognized phenomenon. The
existance of a significant, imperceptible, immune fraction of the
population was demonstrated to drive